As a variety of serious issues between Baghdad and Ankara are put on hold as Iraq forms a new government, Turkey is keeping a close watch. Having learned from its backfired intervention in 2010, Ankara is being more prudent this time around. Although Turkey likes to give the impression that it's neutral in Iraq, its heart is with the Sairoon political bloc headed by Islamist cleric Muqtada al-Sadr. But that doesn’t mean the Sadr bloc is offering Turkey free rein in critical issues awaiting solutions.
Two coalitions are competing to set up the new government in Baghdad; both are led by Shiite blocs. Sadr's Sairoon says it's ready to form the government, claiming more than 180 members, including the Nasr bloc of Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, the National Wisdom Movement of Ammar al-Hakim, and a sprinkling of Sunni, Turkmen and Christian groups.
However, the rival Fatah Alliance claims that many Sairoon members have defected to Fatah, making it the top bloc with 145 votes. The Fatah Alliance is jointly led by Hadi al-Amiri, a commander of the Popular Mobilization Units (PMU), and by former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s pro-Iran State of Law Coalition. But one shouldn't rely on these numbers, as nobody really knows who stands where. For example, the Nasr bloc has already divided into three factions. There could be further shifts between blocs. The Sadr-Abadi-Hakim bloc could even incorporate the Fatah Alliance.
The Kurds are the ones to watch. They have 60 deputies in seven parties and are the key to a new government. Kurds were bitterly disappointed by Iran and Turkey’s rejection of the Kurdish independence referendum in September 2017. After the Iraqi government took back control of Kirkuk in October 2017, Iran was flexible and maintained its dialogue with the Kurds, while Turkey remained in the angry neighbor mode. The common claim that Turkey is the determinant power in Iraq has withered. Ankara's influence collapsed because of several actions: its attempt in 2010 to install a Sunni bloc to run the government against Maliki; offering protection to Sunni leaders like Tariq al-Hashemi; agreeing to a unilateral, 50-year oil deal with the Kurdish government; tolerating the Islamic State as a Sunni movement after Mosul was captured; labeling the PMU a terror movement; and reinforcing the Turkish presence at Bashiqa base.
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