Skip to main content

Can Erdogan intimidate Assad into backing off Idlib?

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has vowed not to "watch from the sidelines" amid news of increased arms supplies flowing from Turkey to Syrian opposition rebels.

Syrian rebel fighters from the recently-formed "National Liberation Front" parade following military training at an unknown location in the northern countryside of the Idlib province on September 11, 2018, in anticipation for an upcoming government forces offensive. - The Syrian regime and its Russian ally are threatening an offensive to retake the northwestern province of Idlib, Syria's last rebel bastion. (Photo by Aaref WATAD / AFP)        (Photo credit should read AAREF WATAD/AFP/Getty Images)
Syrian rebel fighters from the recently formed "National Liberation Front" parade following military training at an unknown location in the northern countryside of Idlib province on Sept. 11, 2018, in anticipation for an upcoming government forces offensive. — GETTY/Aaref Watad

Turkey has reportedly increased arms supplies to Syrian opposition rebels to fend off an imminent offensive by regime forces in the province of Idlib, a move that will likely escalate tensions between Ankara and Moscow.

Reuters, which first reported the story, quoted a senior Free Syrian Army commander as claiming that Turkey had pledged “complete military support for a long, protracted battle.” The weapons allegedly included Russian-made GRAD multiple rocket launchers.

Turkish officials have yet to comment on the claims.

But the consensus among Western sources who closely follow the seven-year Syrian conflict is that Ankara’s goal is not to ignite a new rearguard battle from its borders over the last rebel stronghold. It is rather to convince the regime that it is ready to do so, to deter the latter from launching an all-out assault on Idlib. “They want to intimidate [the regime],” said one of the sources on condition of anonymity.

SUBSCRIBER EXCLUSIVE

Continue reading this exclusive analysis

Original reporting and analysis unavailable elsewhere. Subscribe to AL-MONITOR to read this story and access everything we publish