The recent downing of a Russian plane in Syria re-energized discussions in Moscow on the role of Russia in Syria and whether the revision of its Syria policy should mean downsizing its own presence in the country and downgrading contacts with Iran. Russia and Iran's relationship revolves largely around military and political issues, despite claims by Moscow and Tehran that they seek to cooperate on trade and economic development and boost cultural ties. The Syrian conflict dominates the agenda in this regard. Russia is also a keen supporter of preserving the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), occasionally dispatching its top diplomats to Tehran to persuade Iran to stay in the deal despite Donald Trump's decision to withdraw from it.

While it is not clear whether both of the “backbone” issues holding the partnership together are sturdy enough to call it “strategic,” the relationship between Moscow and Tehran has strengthened amid a variety of global and regional factors. One such factor is the continued deterioration of Russian-American relations to the point of a systemic crisis, coinciding with the White House’s determined measures to strangle Iran economically. Russians have increasingly been studying Iran’s experience of resisting the sanctions.

Yet the relationship is still dependent upon the actions of third parties. Even with the JCPOA, Iran’s ultimate expectations are connected to how the “European trio,” not Russia, reacts to pressure from Trump. Iranian officials have repeatedly claimed they would not take part in a deal that did not benefit their country, referring to the US policy of “deterring investors and foreign business.” It is still unclear how successful the plan to create a new European financial structure specifically for transactions with Iran will be. Although Russia has made significant diplomatic efforts to resolve the Iranian nuclear problem, the country is not as economically attractive to Iran as European investors. President Hassan Rouhani’s administration has been hunting for such European investors. 

Moscow has detected growing dissent in Iran over the perceived squandering of the state's budget on expensive foreign military operations. Iran's domestic political and economic issues go against the government’s ambitions to strengthen its presence in Syria via signing weapons contracts and rebuilding infrastructure, including the transportation system and electrical grid. These measures require hefty financial investments.