While Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu indeed released a video endorsing the candidacy of Minister Ze'ev Elkin in the election for mayor of Jerusalem, it’s doubtful that aside from this obligatory endorsement he would go out of his way to support him.

It’s not that the impassioned Oct. 30 election doesn't interest the prime minister — quite the opposite. But it’s not at all clear that his interests and those of Elkin match up. Alongside Elkin, who is considered a strong candidate, stands Moshe Leon, a close associate of chairman of Yisrael Beitenu party Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman and chairman of Shas Party Interior Minister Aryeh Deri. It seems that the two of them joined forces to get Leon elected and managed to garner him the support, more precious than gold, of the two large groups of ultra-Orthodox: Shas and Degel HaTorah. The Sept. 20 report of this deal hit Elkin with surprise and reshuffled the cards. Afterward, a small skirmish between Elkin and Liberman broke out in the media: The former accused the defense minister of deal-making and ignoring the interests of city residents, and the latter didn’t hold back and told Elkin to stop whining.

The question is now, would Netanyahu throw all his weight and prestige in for Elkin, since the once-warm ties between them have cooled in the past year? It’s not certain. What is certain is that the political arena in Jerusalem is boiling hot and it has ramifications for national politics, even for power relations between the ultra-Orthodox factions in the governing coalition regarding the ultra-Orthodox Enlistment Law crisis. So far, the ultra-Orthodox and Liberman have confronted each other on the law, but joining forces to promote Leon’s candidacy could signal that the relationship is changing. In any case, Netanyahu would certainly first consider his own interests with the ultra-Orthodox, especially since he himself faces an election year — even if Elkin pays the price.

While Leon, a well-known businessman close to right-wing parties, is supported by Liberman and Deri — two experienced political foxes — Elkin has Netanyahu, publicly at least, and Chairman of HaBayit HaYehudi Education Minister Naftali Bennett. The significance of this support is mainly declarative — a show of force Elkin can present (he’s also supported by many Likud ministers). In actuality, he knows that the sector to decide the election is the ultra-Orthodox. Here he is at a huge disadvantage compared to Leon.