A UN official warned this week that an all-out military assault on Idlib, which has nearly 3 million residents, risked the potential for the worst humanitarian conflict “in the 21st century.”

Idlib also presents a terrorist threat comparable to Raqqa or Mosul, the previous strongholds of Islamic State in Syria and Iraq. The al-Qaeda linked Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham controls 60% of Idlib province and has as many as 10,000 fighters; there also are other jihadi groups and armed gangs there. 

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in a Sept. 10 op-ed in the Wall Street Journal, argued against an attack on Idlib, instead arguing for a more “comprehensive international counterterrorism operation” involving “moderate rebels” who have played a crucial role in “Turkey’s fight against terrorists in Northern Syria.”

Unfortunately, neither Erdogan nor the “moderate rebels” call the shots in Idlib. As we reported here last week, given the international community’s efforts to prevent an attack, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and the other armed Salafi groups and foreign fighters in Idlib have no incentive to cooperate. No country will take them, so in the end, they have nowhere to go. They face their last stand in Idlib and thereby benefit from the current reprieve. The people of Idlib, in the meantime, face continued misery under the harsh rule of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and other Salafi groups and armed gangs, who consider civilians to be human shields and prevent their departure. The militant groups have jailed and executed so-called collaborators who would otherwise be inclined to take up Erdogan’s offer.