As President Bashar al-Assad's regime consolidates its control over much of Syria — appearing ready to launch an offensive against Idlib, the last major insurgency stronghold — observers are wondering what the end to the war will mean for Hezbollah's involvement there in the wake of Assad’s seemingly impending victory? The Iran-supported, Lebanon-based Shiite militant group became heavily involved in the civil war in 2015, backing and beefing up Assad's previously beleaguered forces. 

Russia’s support of Assad appears to be yielding significant results with the passing of days. The July 16 summit between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Helsinki was followed by a deal between Moscow and Tel Aviv under which Iranian forces would retreat 53 miles from Israel. Planned talks involving Russia, France and Germany in Turkey appear to be working toward an understanding on the conflict. These geopolitical changes will have significant repercussions for the various players in Syria, including Hezbollah.

“Hezbollah will continue its combat role until the end of the civil war, with the group maintaining its usual [offensive] point-of-the-spear role,” Hezbollah expert Nicholas Blanford, author of “Warriors of God: Inside Hezbollah’s Thirty-Year Struggle Against Israel,” told Al-Monitor.

The Lebanon-based journalist Kassem Kassir told Al-Monitor, “Everyone wants a political solution in Syria, and there are negotiations aimed at avoiding a confrontation in Idlib. Depending on whether these negotiations work out — which also hinges on bringing to heel a number of different groups, including jihadist formations there — the number of Hezbollah fighters deployed in Syria could significantly drop, if there are no more offensives.”