Israel is waiting for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s return. True, the internal Israeli debate about whether Israel should or shouldn’t have tried to finish off Assad’s rule in the course of the harsh years of civil war, when Assad’s forces were weak, still reigns. However, with regard to the immediate future, no one doubts that Assad is returning, big time. Very soon (the Israel Defense Forces’ assessment: within a number of weeks), the Syrian army will retake most of the border areas on the Syrian side of the Golan Heights.
As of this moment, while Israel is not sure if this is really good news, at least it is not bad news either. More and more voices in the security system are saying that Assad even heralds a form of hope for the return of the old order and some kind of stability, along the lines of “Better the devil you know than the devil you don't.”
Longtime Israeli leader Shimon Peres often used the pithy phrase “You can make an omelet from eggs, but you can’t make eggs from an omelet.” Until only a few months ago, the "Syrian omelet" looked hopeless and it appeared that any attempts at reshaping Syria and establishing a new order would be fruitless. Now the Israeli security system is starting to internalize the idea that a Syrian egg — or new order — will soon be reborn out of the bloody omelet of the last seven years.
“Our dilemmas in southern Syria are not that complicated,” a very high-level Israeli officer told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. “At the end of the day, it’s good to have an organized regime as our address in Syria. That was the way it was throughout more than 40 years vis-a-vis the Assad family regime, and we are ready to sign onto another 40 such years. The question is, what will Assad choose? If he will be a partner to renewing all the existing agreements, we’re in favor. But if, at the very same time, he’ll try to inject new external agents into the equation, such as Iran and Hezbollah, then he’ll find himself facing all the firepower and determination that Israel can muster. We won’t let this happen. Syria will not become another Lebanon, Hezbollah won’t be replicated and Iran will not establish long-range rocket launchers on Syrian territory.”
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