Out of the 12 conditions set by US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to reach a new agreement with Iran, eight were tied to Tehran’s regional influence and its support for non-state actors in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen and Palestine. To the United States, Iran’s regional policies are becoming an unbearable threat to its interests and also that of its allies. To the region, Tehran is becoming a new Washington: a regional superpower p.p1 {margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; font: 16.0px Times; color: #101010; -webkit-text-stroke: #101010} span.s1 {font-kerning: none; background-color: #fffb01} span.s2 {font-kerning: none} involved in multiple theaters across West Asia. As for Iran, the region is its fence when it comes to direct threats to its stability and independence. Therefore, the gap between US and Iranian demands is becoming larger — and hence, the possibility of reaching a consensus is diminishing and the potential for a future direct or indirect confrontation is getting stronger.

To Iran, the United States is using the nuclear deal as ransom to achieve what it and its allies failed to achieve in the region. In the words of an Iranian military source in Syria who spoke with Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity, “Syria is the main issue here. After they failed [to overthrow President Bashar al-Assad] despite investing billions of dollars, they want to take revenge [on] Iran by undermining the nuclear deal.” The military source explained that Iran’s role in Syria isn’t negotiable, “It’s up to the Syrians to decide; they invited Iran, not the US and not any of its allies,” he said, stating that the “number of Iranian advisers in Syria is limited. They [the US] aren’t after the number [of Iranian advisers], but the confidence people have in the Iranians, Iran’s influence and its leverage over other players in the Syrian war.”

The renewed nuclear standoff is reminiscent of the tension following the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq after President George W. Bush had in 2002 designated the Islamic Republic a member of the "Axis of Evil," putting Iran under the threat of a fate similar to that of its western neighbor. Tehran, under a Reformist government then, took the initiative in Iraq and decided to take the opposite track. Iran’s allies in Iraq — along with other groups that it backed financially or with arms — imposed a war of attrition, undermining the US-led occupation of the war-torn country. Some of these groups are now fighting in Syria, either under the names they have used in Iraq, such as Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq and Kataeb Hezbollah, or with new names such as Hezbollah al-Nujaba.

Alongside these groups, there are Syrian militias that were formed and which seem to be ready to become Tehran’s arm in Syria — a clear example being the Baqir Brigade, which refers to itself as the armed wing of the Bakkara tribe while putting out the message that it is a full-fledged member of the Iranian-led “Resistance Axis.” On April 6, the group issued a statement vowing to “liberate every single inch of the precious homeland” from American and Turkish troops, urging Syrians to stay away from the sites and bases of the "coward American occupier.” The militia pledged to continue the path of resistance in line with the allegiance it gave to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, saying it would “defend the unity of the Syrian Arab Republic and the Islamic nation.”