The May elections in Iraq were followed by a string of negotiations among the winning blocs, concluding with an alliance announced June 13 between the leading Kurdish and Shiite slates. This underlines once again the tertiary role played by Sunni politicians in Iraq. Despite the Supreme Court decision to allow a recount of the votes, the decline of Sunni players in the political game will remain and can be attributed to miscalculations, local dynamics and the community’s disillusionment, which will need to be addressed by the new political class.

A recent report by Utica Risk Services concluded, “The Iraqi Sunni political class left this election with less coherence than ever before.” The emergence of powerful dynamics, compounded with the fallout of the war on the Islamic State (IS), which resulted in a large displacement of the Sunni population, as well as the corruption and division of local players, have all contributed to the erosion of the Sunni community’s power.

Several Sunni political blocs participated in the May election. Sunni groups included the Iraqi Decision Alliance (IDA), headed by Vice President Osama Najafi, and the Al-Hal Alliance led by Jamal Karbouli. Other groups included Khamis Khanjar’s Al-Qarar Alliance; the secular Wataniya Alliance headed by Vice President Ayad Allawi and parliament Speaker Salim al-Jabouri; and Bayariq al-Kheir led by former Defense Minister Khaled al-Obeidi.

Recent elections have shown a regression of Sunni representation. According to Utica Risk, the IDA obtained 15 seats and Wataniya 23, despite the latter including the factions of powerful Sunni figures such as Saleh Mutlaq and Jabouri. While Wataniya improved its results between 2014 and 2018, there is still a decline of Sunni powers, according to an article published by Niqash. The article said the IDA together with Anbar Is Our Identity, Ninevah Is Our Identity, Salahuddin Is Our Identity and Abiroon obtained about 47 seats. Other Sunni figures reaped large numbers of votes by running on Shiite or Kurdish dominated lists. One such top contender was Obeidi, who along with running on the Sunni Bayariq al-Kheir list, also ran on Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi’s Shiite al-Nasr list. Obeidi obtained 72,690 votes, the second-highest nationwide results, according to Utica Risk, while Najafi, who headed the largest Sunni list, only obtained 11,650 votes. The good results registered in Salahuddin and Anbar can be explained by the patronage system its leaders had enforced in the provinces and the services they provide to a large section of voters, said Mountazar Nasser, chief editor of al-Aalam news agency.