Turkey's former President Abdullah Gul announced April 28 that he will not run in the June 24 elections. Al-Monitor previously covered reports that Erdogan’s adviser and Turkey’s military chief of staff arrived in Gul’s backyard in a helicopter to deter him from announcing his candidacy. In his 10-minute press conference, during which he did not bother to answer questions from journalists, Gul made it clear that the candidacy idea was not his own and that he was approached by opposition groups, particularly the tiny Saadet (Felicity) Party. His speech focused on his credentials as a founder of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) and his resentment toward his former party. His was not the voice of a determined challenger but rather that of a bitter AKP insider. Regardless, the speech put an end to speculation dating back to June 2013 about Gul’s potential to oppose Erdogan.

Although Gul had not spoken about his own candidacy, prominent Turkish media figures had asked the entire opposition to rally around him. They argued that Gul is the only one who could go up against Erdogan. For example, one piece warned those who resist “the Gul formula” that they will bear the burden of not supporting the person favored by the polls. They argued that Gul would come with an A-level team, all former AKP bigwigs such as former Economy Minister Ali Babacan, Deputy Prime Minister Bulent Arinc and even former Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu. Yet none of them dared to publicly take a stand against Erdogan or the current government. Despite his name recognition and international reputation and the domestic hype from prominent liberal opposition figures, the Republican People's Party (CHP) and Iyi (Good) Party base never warmed up to Gul. Indeed, during these past two weeks, the social media accounts and mailboxes of several lawmakers were bombarded with anti-Gul messages.

If Gul really was the strongest candidate against Erdogan, why would the anti-Erdogan camp oppose him? Given that the AKP was so adamantly against a potential Gul candidacy, shouldn't the opposition have rallied around the last best hope to beat Erdogan’s one-man rule? Why would they send messages to their parliamentarians and party leaders warning them not to even dream about nominating Gul as a joint candidate? How can the same man be seen as the only hope by a section of the opposition while the others declare him persona non grata?

After analyzing the public’s open and back channel reactions and talking to opposition figures as they tried to swallow the bitter pill, Al-Monitor presents three crucial reasons the opposition didn’t want Gul as a joint candidate, why the anti-AKP sectors cannot unite behind the allegedly strongest candidate even as they race against time.