Ever since Donald Trump’s victory in the 2016 US presidential election, Iranian hard-liners have been jubilant about his pledges to kill the nuclear deal — the signature achievement of moderate President Hassan Rouhani. Now, Trump has finally handed a precious gift to his foes in Tehran. On May 8, after months of threats, Trump announced a US withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). He had warned his European allies that if they don’t “fix” the deal, he would “nix” it.
In 2013, Iranians were fed up with the two-term presidency of hard-liner Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, under whom the nuclear file had turned into a crisis. Amid these conditions, the late Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani’s nomination in the presidential election that year was welcomed by many, as he was known to both friends and foes as someone who could improve the bitter relationship between Iran and the West. As Rafsanjani was barred from running by the Guardian Council, he quickly threw his weight behind his protege, Rouhani, who pledged to voters that he would solve the nuclear crisis. Throughout the negotiations between Iran and the P5+1 (the United States, UK, France, Russia, China and Germany), Republicans in the US Congress and hard-liners in the Iranian parliament almost constantly sought to torpedo the talks.
After the signing of the deal, ordinary Iranians were waiting to see the economic dividends that officials told them would improve their lives. Things were gradually getting better in the months after the JCPOA was implemented in January 2016. But then Trump entered politics. Even as he vowed to kill the deal, most Iranians were still hopeful, re-electing the “Diplomat Sheikh” — a common moniker for Rouhani — in May 2017 and opting for constructive engagement with the world to deflect US pressures.
In the aftermath of the US withdrawal and amid continued uncertainty about the future of the nuclear deal, the experience of the JCPOA is already having potentially profound consequences for Iranian politics.
AL-MONITOR All-Access gives you unlimited access to all our journalism, the full Daily Briefing, exclusive interviews, premium newsletters, and live events — for less than $2/week.