In Iran, the housing sector — which accounts for a hefty 35% of all household expenses — has since 2011 been in the grip of its worst recession in recent history. Indeed, it was the only sector not to rebound after sanctions were lifted with the implementation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in January 2016. But long-awaited gradual signs of a comeback have been seen in the past year, though prospects of a full recovery are now in thrall of developments in other Iranian markets, which are closely tied to the fate of the nuclear deal.

According to the Statistical Center of Iran, the construction sector — which includes residential units and other buildings and infrastructure — began registering positive growth rates from the start of the previous Iranian year beginning March 20, 2017. Furthermore, permits issued for the construction of residential units indicated growth that was not considerable on a countrywide scale, but was more accentuated in the capital Tehran, which saw a 10.6% hike.

On the other hand, a study of the volume of home deals across the country, registered by the Ministry of Roads and Urban Development, signals stronger demand compared to previous years, while Central Bank of Iran (CBI) data indicate that Tehran registered its highest volume of deals in recent years during the final month of the third quarter of the previous Iranian year to Dec. 21, as it showcased a 50% year-on-year surge.

What's more, numbers for Tehran and other cities clearly register considerable price hikes for residential units that go well beyond the inflation rate of 9.6% registered for the previous fiscal year. Even as the inflation rate is expected to rise to double digits again this year, it will come nowhere close to the massive average price jump of 30% registered in Tehran in the first month of the current fiscal year to April 20. Iran's housing affordability index has grown in recent years, but not to an extent that would fully answer for price jumps of this magnitude.