March marks the seventh anniversary of the Syrian insurgence, but the war's end remains elusive. While it has taken the offensive, Damascus can't resolve the conflict militarily without foreign help, and instead is forced to pretend it is willing to consider political reforms.
On March 16 in Kazakhstan's capital of Astana, the foreign ministers of Russia, Turkey and Iran summed up the results of their cooperation since January 2017, when indirect talks between Syrian rebel factions and government representatives took place. Representatives of the Syrian government and opposition leaders didn’t attend the Astana meeting this time. During a press conference, the foreign ministers — representing the three countries acting as guarantors of the Astana peace process — exchanged statements about maintaining cooperation, welcomed the progress made and planned the next round of talks for mid-May.
This meeting was designed to sustain the results of the Astana negotiation format by making a collective statement and preparing recommendations that will be presented April 4 in Istanbul and later in Tehran at a summit of the Russian, Turkish and Iranian presidents to discuss Syria. As Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov pointed out, the parties will discuss new ways of implementing resolutions approved by the UN Security Council and actively supported by the Astana process. According to Lavrov, creating a UN-supported constitutional commission should become the turning point in alleviating political conflict in Syria. The decision to establish the commission was made at the Syrian National Dialogue Congress, held in late January in Sochi, Russia.
Despite the efforts in Astana and Sochi, which were both designed to revive the UN-supported political negotiations in Geneva, the situation in Syria makes it clear that the Geneva talks have stalled and need an absolute reboot. The Syrian regime, backed by pro-Iranian factions, sees the peace initiatives as a way to divide and weaken the opposition. Turkey, which has gained control in Syria of Afrin and is eyeing Manbij, is tempted to play along.
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