Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas addressed the UN Security Council on Feb. 20. In a meeting at UN headquarters following that speech, US President Donald Trump’s envoys, Jared Kushner and Jason Greenblatt, surprised ambassadors of the Security Council’s member states. The two announced that Trump would soon present the council with his plan for what he has dubbed “the ultimate deal” between Israel and the Palestinians, and expects a unanimous vote approving the plan — this despite the fact that the council’s member states had no role in formulating the plan and have no idea whether the Israelis and Palestinians would like it. Several days earlier, Trump himself downplayed expectations of the governments in Jerusalem and the Palestinian Authority (PA). In a Feb. 11 interview with Israel Hayom, the president said, “Right now, I would say the Palestinians are not looking to make peace. … And I am not necessarily sure that Israel is looking to make peace.”

Mainstream Israeli and Palestinian politicians, as well as foreign diplomats, are in agreement regarding the bitter prospects of the two-state solution that proposes the establishment of an independent Palestinian state alongside Israel. The findings of a Palestinian-Israeli survey published at the end of January indicate a drop in the trust of both Palestinians and Israelis in prospects for peace. The poll, conducted in December 2017 by the Tami Steinmetz Center for Peace Research at Tel Aviv University and by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in Ramallah, shows that a large majority (three-quarters) of both peoples hardly expect or do not expect a Palestinian state to be established in the next five years. One-quarter of Israeli Jews support an apartheid regime or expulsion.

According to a Western diplomat who spoke with Al-Monitor, Trump’s plan will include significant Israeli concessions regarding the status of Jerusalem’s Temple Mount, sacred to both Muslims and Jews. Still, there is zero chance of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government adopting any such outline. The same is true for Palestinian willingness to cede control of that site, which they call Haram al-Sharif. A US administration source who spoke with Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity said with undisguised regret that holding on to the illusion of a two-state solution could actually result in an apartheid state or an ever-lasting conflict. And so, Israel must start preparing for a one-state solution.

Along with the erosion of trust in the two-state solution, there are indications of growing support for the old-new idea of an Israeli-Palestinian confederacy. In his 1968 book, “The War of the Seventh Day,” Uri Avnery — a prominent leader of the Israeli peace camp — called for a joint diplomatic, economic and security framework between a Palestinian state that would be established along the June 4, 1967, borders. According to the findings of the Steinmetz-PSR poll, one-third of Israeli Jews back the idea — 7% more than in June 2017 and 13% more than in December 2016. On the other hand, Palestinian backing for a confederacy dropped from 37% in June 2017 to 28% in December 2017.