Last fall, the World Bank forecast that Iran’s economy will grow by merely 4% and 3.4% in 2018 and 2019, respectively. These rates are much lower than what the Islamic Republic is seeking in its sixth five-year development plan (2016-2021) and 20-Year Vision (2005-25). As such, it seems that Iran is set to fail in implementing its strategic plans to achieve economic growth of 8%, including schemes that were deemed vital to boost productivity and job creation in the country.

Economic growth achieved by capital-rich industries rather than human capital is incapable of lowering unemployment. Having said that, the statistics published by relevant agencies in Iran concerning job creation do not correspond with the officially announced economic growth. This backs the argument that spikes in economic output have barely been sustainable and have clearly been driven by petrodollars in the case of Iran.

It should be emphasized that only sustainable and continuous economic growth can lead to long-term job creation. In places like Iran, constant fluctuations have long hindered economic output. The country’s industrial sector has seen continuous closures of small and medium-sized businesses, impacting employment. Official data indicate that while the industrial sector’s growth stood at 18.1% around this time last year, it now stands at 4.4%. The current jump to some $70 per barrel aside, with oil prices ranging between $50-$60 and economic reforms thwarted by the nationwide protests in late December, the Hassan Rouhani administration does not stand any chance of improving the financial well-being of Iranian households. If current conditions continue to persist, economic growth is inclined to stay at around 3%, close to its long-term trend. Stuck in a potential lower growth trap, there is of course the possibility of mass protests again by underprivileged and jobless Iranians in the future.

An economic system delivers the output sought provided that the inward flow of investment is not interrupted. Productivity is also an important factor that shapes economic development, and it has been lacking in Iran. The fourth and fifth five-year development plans (2005-15) called for productivity increases to contribute 2.5% to annual economic growth. But in practice, the real share long stood at zero, only to turn negative in recent years. This indicates that economic growth has been mostly influenced by the exploitation of natural resources. In the meantime, productivity in the tradable sector — namely industry and agriculture — missed the opportunity to lift up the economy due to the abundance of oil revenues in the previous decade.