The leaders of Turkey, Iran and Russia have agreed in principle to a summit on Syria to be held in Istanbul. The decision follows recent phone calls by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. The date is yet to be determined. Foreign ministers from the three countries will hold a preliminary meeting in Astana, Kazakhstan, in March. Given the latest developments in Syria, which require increased military coordination and cooperation among the three countries, Ankara would clearly like the summit to take place sooner rather than later.

Turkey’s Operation Olive Branch in Afrin against the Syrian Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG), which Ankara considers a terrorist organization, and Russia’s joint operations with Syrian regime forces and Iranian-backed fighters in Idlib have caused strains between Ankara and its informal allies in Moscow and Tehran.

Attempts by the United States to consolidate its position in territories held by the YPG in northern Syria, nevertheless, remain the main motive for keeping the informal, tripartite alliance alive. Regardless of Turkey’s suspicions about long-term Russian and Iranian intentions in Syria, and vice versa, the three do not want to allow potential strains among them to work to the United States' advantage, not only in Syria, but in the region as a whole.

The Istanbul summit will therefore aim to present a picture of deepening cooperation between Turkey, Russia and Iran while devising a practical approach to preventing them from stepping on each other’s toes in Syria. Differences between Ankara and Moscow and Ankara and Tehran have recently emerged on a number of occasions, illustrating that the alliance is not made in heaven.