Real target of Erdogan's Olive Branch could be US clout
In the third week of Turkey's frustrating fight against Syrian Kurdish forces in Afrin, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan may be betting on an even bigger payoff than domestic support: seeing the United States effectively pushed out of Syria.
As Turkey’s offensive against Syrian Kurdish forces in Afrin grinds on for a third week, the prevailing wisdom is that NATO’s second-largest army is getting bogged down. Critics point to the number of Turks killed in combat — at least 31 in 26 days — the swelling pile of disabled helicopters and tanks and the slow pace of Turkish advances into the hilly enclave. A veteran Kurdish politician went so far as to suggest that Afrin would become Turkey’s “Vietnam.”
Others highlight Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s efforts to leverage the tidal wave of Turkish nationalism inspired by Afrin for political gain. Never mind the cost, the real objective of Operation Olive Branch, they say, is to help cement his victory in the presidential elections due to be held in 2019.
The plan is contingent on Russia’s blessing, as it controls the airspace over Afrin. Meanwhile, Turkey’s relations with its NATO ally the United States are in full meltdown because the Syrian Kurdish militia that Turkish forces are targeting is the US-led coalition’s top partner against the Islamic State. US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson is due to meet with Erdogan in Ankara today amid worries of a military confrontation in Syria.
But not everyone agrees with the picture being painted of a flailing and increasingly isolated giant unleashed by a ruthless and self-serving leader at the mercy of Russia. To the contrary, Turkey is playing the long game and it’s the United States that is isolated in Syria, argues Fabrice Balanche, a French academic and fellow at the Hoover Institution who specializes in Syrian affairs.
