Although the Islamic State (IS) is near defeat, Syria now risks a confrontation among the major regional and world powers. This turn of events can only be characterized as a failure of imagination and leadership, requiring an urgent rethink of the endgame in Syria. Washington and Moscow can either ramp up for a new and uncertain round of violence or begin a UN Security Council-mandated regional peace process to facilitate long overdue post-conflict stability and reconstruction in Syria and Lebanon, in concert with addressing the Israeli-Palestinian question. 

A turnaround in Syria requires a change of mindset. The final chapters of the battle against IS should have been a transition of opportunity rather than crisis. But the situation today is nonetheless in crisis. The "proxy war" approach has turned into something more ominous. US, Russian, Turkish, Iranian and Israeli forces are now all active parties to the conflict. The Syrian actors, and their regional backers, have the potential to become the tail wagging the dog, unless the United States and Russia can turn things around. 

The early events of 2018 highlight these alarming trends. Last month Turkey defied US calls for restraint, attacked Afrin and threatened an assault on Manbij, targeting the People’s Protection Units (YPG). The Kurdish YPG makes up the core of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the principal US partner in Syria. On Feb. 7, US-led coalition forces backed up an SDF retaliatory strike against the Syrian military. 

Four days earlier, on Feb. 3, a Russian Su-25 was shot down over Idlib and its pilot killed. Russian forces retaliated against armed groups in the area, reportedly killing 30, and Maxim Suchkov says Russian military engagement in Syria, which has been extensive, may only deepen as a result of the incident. “Militarily, the downing of the jet is a pinprick and is unlikely to make Moscow reverse its decision on its troops' presence,” Suchkov writes. “But the Kremlin is now likely to throw even more weight behind Assad (especially since Moscow has been seeking to leverage Assad lately), beef up its military strikes on the terrorists and ‘uncooperative opposition’ alike, and be less flexible politically. At the end of the day, Russia believes it now has yet another reason to think it’s doing the right thing in Syria.”