Turkey’s Free Syrian Army-backed Afrin operation has probably put an end to speculation on where Russia stands when it comes to Syrian Kurds and Turkey.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been adamant on Turkey’s intention to send Turkish troops into Afrin to dislodge Syrian Kurdish fighters of the People’s Protection Units (YPG) there. Erdogan believes Syrian self-rule in northern Syria is more dangerous for Turkey than the Islamic State (IS).

Afrin has been an exceptionally stable and relatively tranquil corner of Syria since 2012, when it fell under the control of Syrian Kurdish groups that Turkey believes are affiliated with the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). Afrin had never been categorized as a de-escalation zone for two reasons. First, there was no need because of Afrin's relative stability. Second, the region was under Russian influence. Thus, Turkish military intervention in Afrin at any level would have to take place with the acquiescence of Russia.

Moreover, less than 48 hours before the Turkish military operation — ironically dubbed Olive Branch — the Syrian regime in Damascus declared that a Turkish air operation would be met by Syrian missiles. The Syrian statement came while Turkey’s army and intelligence chiefs were in Moscow to get Russian approval and thus, the Syrian statement was interpreted as complementing a previous Russian warning against flying over Russian-controlled airspace over Syria.