For the past several years, Turkey has feared and sought to prevent two things in Syria: the United States' partnership with the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) in northern Syria and a role for the Kurds in the settlement process that would eventually make their de facto autonomy permanent.

Despite all its efforts, Turkey has failed to stop US military aid for the YPG-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Now it seems to be losing also the second chapter, in which Russia is the lead player. Ankara has signaled readiness even for dialogue with Damascus, but preventing a Kurdish role in the solution process via the Russian track is becoming increasingly difficult.

After a Nov. 24 call between Presidents Donald Trump and Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu claimed that Trump had promised to stop arming the YPG, but things look quite different from what Ankara is trying to paint. The Pentagon has since said that its support will continue as long as the fight against the Islamic State (IS) continues. Moreover, the Kurds insist they have received assurances that US military presence in liberated areas will continue until a political settlement is reached in Syria. This signals that the United States could stay in the play as a "guarantor" state in a process that would enshrine the de facto Kurdish autonomy into a constitutional framework — an alarming prospect for Ankara.

The most critical developments, however, are taking place in the Kurds' relations with Russia, which they are building in parallel to their ties with the United States in line with a third-way strategy resting on the balancing of powers.