The fallout from US President Donald Trump’s Dec. 6 decision to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel is just starting to be felt, and Tehran seems ready to capitalize.

Although four Palestinians were killed in clashes with Israeli security forces in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip on Dec. 15, it would be a mistake to judge the reaction to Trump’s decision simply by the levels of violence on the “Arab street” just two weeks out.

As Daoud Kuttab writes, the US decision has unified Arab ranks and put Jerusalem at the top of the Islamic agenda. At Arab and Islamic leadership summits, the usual talkers and final statements on Jerusalem will no longer suffice. Muslims around the world, and especially in the Middle East, may ultimately hold their ruling elites accountable for an epic failure of leadership. Two weeks is the beginning of the beginning. This crisis will have a long fuse.

Trump’s decision was a windfall for Islamic Jihad, which is likely behind the increased rocket fire into Israel from Gaza. “In contrast to Hamas, which has chosen a mainly passive role at the moment regarding the Jerusalem proclamation,” Shlomi Eldar explains, “sources in Israel’s security system identify aggressive operational activities by Islamic Jihad. True, the organization did not accept responsibility for the rocket fire on Israel, but the type of rockets fired twice this week on Ashkelon turns the spotlight mainly in Islamic Jihad's direction. While Hamas views Salafist organizations as a real threat to Hamas' sovereignty and rule over Gaza, Hamas has a close relationship with Islamic Jihad. The military wing of the small, militant Islamic Jihad organization, called the al-Quds Brigades (Jerusalem Brigades), is estimated to number between 1,000-1,500 armed fighters. Hamas views these as its 'brothers in arms.”