What 2018 looks like for Russia, US regarding Syria
Will US and Russian relations in the new year involve cooperation, confrontation or attempts to carefully balance both?
MOSCOW — As 2017 was winding down, US State Secretary Rex Tillerson called Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Dec. 26 to discuss the future. In addition to North Korea and Ukraine, the two diplomats discussed options on moving the stalled political process on Syria and the Moscow-proposed Syrian National Dialogue Congress in Sochi.
Earlier, 40 opposition groups declared they would refuse to participate in the congress, accusing Moscow of “failing to pressure its ally, [Syrian] President Bashar al-Assad.” Russia, however, is bound to hold the congress, which is currently set for Jan. 29-30. In the meantime, Moscow continues to engage different opposition groups individually and is cautiously pushing Damascus to do more on the humanitarian side — the latest Ghouta medical evacuation may be a sign of the very modest progress in this area. Yet Moscow seems reluctant to pressure Assad on political matters and continues to provide air support for the Syria army's offensives to seize control of opposition-held areas.
Ensuring the success of the Syrian political settlement and the subsequent transition process is a diplomatic priority for Russia in 2018. The mission is even more important given that Syria will remain at the core of Moscow’s policy in the Middle East. Russia’s stated second priority — and first in the military domain — will be the fight against remaining terrorist groups in Syria. On Dec. 27, Russian army Gen. Valery Gerasimov, the chief of general staff, said in an interview with Komsomolskaya Pravda that Russia’s principal military objective for 2018 will be to "eliminate Jabhat al-Nusra [now part of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham] … which continues to operate in some de-escalation zones.”
Gerasimov recognizes that “the situation [in Syria] is still unstable” but said that despite Moscow's troop drawdown, “[Russia] has forces in Syria capable of delivering an adequate offensive if needed.” He added, “We’ll also maintain a naval presence in the Mediterranean."
