Europe might step in if Trump's Mideast initiative fails

Rarely in recent years has there been so little talk in international corridors on Europe's role in the Middle East. With the Trump administration distancing itself from Brussels, the European Union (EU) has become isolated, and its worldwide influence has been weakened. In fact, US President Donald Trump is not hiding his disrespect for the EU and most of its leaders. He minced no words when talking of British Prime Minister Theresa May, despite his support of Brexit. The same — and more — is true regarding German Chancellor Angela Merkel, over her immigration policies.

Today, leading EU countries are also less integrated given the Brexit talks, and Merkel’s domestic crisis. This leaves mainly European headquarters in Brussels and Paris active on the Middle Eastern front.

A senior source close to Federica Mogherini, the EU's high representative for foreign affairs and security policy, told Al-Monitor that Mogherini maintains ongoing contact with US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, including on Middle Eastern issues. Still, it seems that the administration only partially shares Trump’s policy initiatives with her. Trump's proclamation on Jerusalem certainly came as an unpleasant surprise. In fact, Mogherini had conveyed in recent weeks to Washington the EU's support of a US initiative for regional cooperation, as long as it does not harm the Iranian nuclear deal, and as long as it favors an Israeli-Palestinian peace in the form of a two-state solution. Mogherini had also conveyed Europe's strong objections to any new US policy on Jerusalem that could destabilize the region. In her chilly looking meeting with Tillerson in Brussels on Dec. 5, Mogherini reiterated Europe's objection to recognizing Jerusalem as Israel's capital. After Trump's proclamation, Mogherini was quick to state, "The European Union expresses serious concern about today’s announcement by the United States President Trump on Jerusalem and the repercussions this may have on the prospect of peace.''

The EU had also been warning both Washington and Jerusalem against settlement expansion in the West Bank. According to the senior official, Brussels is quietly supporting the Palestinian reconciliation agreement, and is in constant contact with Ramallah in order to sustain the Abbas regime. Europe has actually increased its economic assistance both to the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Speaking on condition of anonymity, the official said, “There is indeed an opportunity to advance an Israeli-Palestinian two-state solution process, especially given the changes in Saudi Arabia for a more moderate Islam and Saudi pride over the Arab Peace Initiative of 2002. We will support a Trump initiative in this direction. But if it fails, 2018 may very well witness an EU regional initiative, because the Israeli-Palestinian status quo cannot be sustained.”