Kurds who insisted on holding the independence referendum were warned in September. Friends and foes alike, as well as many Kurds themselves, predicted that once the Islamic State (IS) was cleared from its bastion of Havice, a region near Kirkuk, the Iraqi army and the Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) would turn their guns on Kurdish forces to expel them from disputed lands. As a result, the doomsayers said, the Kurdish aspiration for an independent state would be even more difficult to achieve.

That's exactly what happened.

The army and the PMU launched major offensives Oct. 15, and within 24 hours they had wrested from the Kurds control of many disputed areas including Kirkuk, Mahmur, Sinjar and Hanekin. The state assumed control of strategic locations including the Kirkuk airport, the K1 military base and the oil fields of Baba Gurgur and Bai Hassan. All told, the Kurds lost 40% of the territory they had controlled since 2014.

The Kurds who feared the referendum would be too risky now blame Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) President Massoud Barzani — who insisted on the vote — for badly miscalculating the outcome.