The sixth round of Astana talks Sept. 15 were marked by an agreement between Iran, Russia and Turkey on a fourth Syrian de-escalation zone in Idlib and the deployment of about 1,500 observers in the northern region. Experts interviewed by Al-Monitor have spoken of a joint military operation between the three powers motivated by various geopolitical considerations.

This comes against the backdrop of attempts by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), al-Qaeda’s former affiliate, to secure its position by infiltrating local councils and rallying prominent figures in Idlib. HTS is, according to sources, under increasing pressure following a string of defections and assassinations.

The Astana talks appear to have paved the way for a military intervention in northern Syria. According to an Al Jazeera report, Turkey's pro-government Yeni Safak newspaper said in a Sept. 15 report that the three countries planned to divide the Idlib region into three areas of influence, with Turkish forces and opposition fighters in the northwest region bordering Turkey.

“There were protests in recent weeks against HTS. Idlib residents are worried because the implementation of the Astana deal remains unclear amid fears of wide-scale confrontations,” activist Ibrahim Idilbi told Al-Monitor.