It is not clear whether the Kurdistan Regional Government’s (KRG) independence referendum planned for Sept. 25 will go ahead. KRG President Massoud Barzani says it will, but he faces strong opposition from the West on the grounds that it will endanger Iraq’s territorial integrity. Turkey also opposes the referendum, ostensibly for the same reason, but primarily because of the effect this could have on its restive Kurds.

Many agree, however, that Ankara's response to Barzani’s announcement of the referendum in June was much milder than expected. They point to the strong ties between Ankara and the KRG, from which both sides have benefited. If Barzani were to bow to pressure and postpone the vote, it would be a relief to Ankara, but not lasting. The can would only be kicked down the road.

Galip Dalay, a former researcher with the government-sponsored Political, Economic and Social Research Foundation and current head of the Al Sharq Forum, said the KRG’s referendum announcement “shows again that Turkey lacks a Kurdish policy.”

In a recent article in the government friendly daily Karar, Dalay argued, “Turkey has different policies for different [Kurdish] groups,” citing the Kurdistan Workers Party and its affiliate, the Democratic Union Party (PYD) in Syria (both of which Ankara says are terrorist organizations); Barzani’s Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP); the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, led by Jalal Talabani; and the Gorran movement in northern Iraq. Dalay said that in sum, Turkey's piecemeal approach does not amount to a Kurdish policy.