The takeover July 23 of the northern Syrian city of Idlib and several other nearby regions by former al-Qaeda affiliate Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) exposes the northern governorate to possible military operations by both Russia and the international community. The organization, which recently cracked down on its rival Ahrar al-Sham, will have to maintain a careful balancing act in northern Syria, as more radical moves could pressure the group’s internal cohesion, trigger a popular backlash and pit it against the international community, which considers it a terrorist organization. Yet the group’s aggressive behavior reflects the organization’s priority to expand its territory and consolidate its power, which would make it a de facto interlocutor in the cease-fire deals ongoing in Syria.

A string of de-escalation zones have been created in Syria with the implementation of cease-fire deals between rebels and the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad — the latest enforced Aug. 3 in Homs. The plan envisions a similar deal for the region of Idlib in northern Syria. However, the recent takeover by HTS of the region may expose the governorate to possible retaliation — if not by Russia, by the international community.

The Idlib region witnessed in July fierce clashes between HTS and Ahrar al-Sham. HTS is the political spawn of the former al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra, while Ahrar al-Sham was once considered one of the strongest Salafist organizations in Syria. The clashes ended with the withdrawal of Ahrar al-Sham from strategic locations in Idlib and near the border with Turkey followed by a cease-fire, which both factions have since broken intermittently.

“The situation in Idlib is being followed closely and the threat of HTS taken seriously. There is a possibility of action by the international community at a later stage, but it is unclear who will do it. For now, it is the war on the Islamic State that remains the priority,” Syria expert Samuel Heller from the Century Foundation told Al-Monitor.