While Iraqi Kurds are expected to overwhelmingly vote their preference for an independent state on Sept. 25, it is less clear how Iraqi Kurdistan President Massoud Barzani will manage opposition from just about everyone else.
The referendum does not compel Barzani to declare an independent Iraqi Kurdish state. Barzani may consider a yes vote as leverage to negotiate with Baghdad and neighboring powers from a greater position of strength.
Barzani has been a master of managing the aspirations of his people for an independent state with the niceties of regional realpolitik. This will be even more of a political tightrope after the referendum.
This column wrote last month that there is “shared interest among Syria, Turkey and Iran in preventing Kurdish autonomy” in both Syria and Iraq. The Iraqi Kurdish referendum complicates Erbil’s close ties with Ankara. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has opposed the referendum from the start, fearing the impact on the Kurds in both Turkey and Syria. Turkey’s top priority in Syria is to break the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG). The YPG is Washington’s Syrian partner of choice and also aligned with the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). The United States and Turkey consider the PKK a terrorist organization. While the KRG does not support the YPG, and is a rival of the PKK, both the YPG and the PKK are popular with many Iraqi Kurds.
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