Turkey has mobilized thousands of troops to combat the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) in Afrin, Syria, and made sure those moves were well-publicized. There were even media reports that July 5 would be the launch date. The areas around Afrin and nearby Tel Rifaat occasionally came under Turkish artillery fire to add credence to predictions that war was around the corner.

As we were all waiting for a war to break out, Ankara began to whine about US and Russian stalling tactics to obstruct the operation Turkey was planning with the Free Syrian Army (FSA). Turkey began vacillating between rhetoric and reality. Just as Turkey's Operation Euphrates Shield in Syria was carried out with a green light from Russia as the United States looked the other way, the feasibility of Turkey's move on Afrin also requires their assent.

Just look at the field to understand what is going on.

As opposition forces battle the Syrian regime, and Turkey is using some of those opposition forces to target its perpetual enemy — the Kurds — Russia is supporting the Syrian regime while helping a US-led coalition (with the aid of some Kurds) to fight the Islamic State (IS). If Turkey attacks the Kurds in Afrin, the United States fears that could detract from the Kurdish help it's getting to fight IS.