There’s talk on the Israeli political right of a “done deal” between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump. According to senior members of the HaBayit HaYehudi party, one of Netanyahu’s main coalition partners, the deal has been clinched. Netanyahu realized that he has no choice but to go along with the president’s grand quest for Israeli-Palestinian peace, or at least to play along and hope that the Palestinians are the ones who derail it.
To that end, the prime minister will have to change the makeup of his coalition. The current government, the most right-wing government in Israeli history, will not survive a significant diplomatic process entailing difficult concessions on Israel’s part. In recent days, the heads of HaBayit HaYehudi, Education Minister Naftali Bennett and Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked, have begun preparations for the day they are forced to pull out of the government and cross over to the opposition benches.
The question is whether the center-left Zionist Camp can cross from the opposition to replace HaBayit HaYehudi in the coalition after the endless failed negotiations conducted since 2015 by Zionist Camp leader Isaac Herzog on joining Netanyahu’s government. The Labor Party, the main component of the Zionist Camp, will hold primaries in July. “The answer,” a senior party source told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity, “will be provided by the primaries. If Herzog is re-elected, his path to the government will be short and smooth. If, on the other hand, Knesset member Amir Peretz ousts him, things will be far more complicated.”
The other contenders, such as Knesset member Erel Margalit and former Netanyahu government minister Avi Gabai, have categorically ruled out joining the Netanyahu government. They all talk of providing “external support” for the government if it embarks on peace talks. This means serving as a safety net for Netanyahu by voting from outside of the coalition against any nonconfidence Knesset motion aimed at toppling the government. But Netanyahu is unlikely to base his political future on such support, which has no substantive meaning. This is where Trump comes in. “Trump is the only one who can demand that the Zionist Camp join the government and enforce his demand,” said a Labor Party source, speaking on the condition of anonymity. “It was fear of Trump that made Netanyahu and [Palestinian President Mahmoud] Abbas aspire for peace, and fear of Trump is what should drag Labor into the government.”
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