Israeli intelligence believes that the developing crisis between the United States and North Korea will last a very long time and that its potential to erupt into a full-fledged conflict is high. According to this assessment, President Donald Trump will increase pressure on Pyongyang in a series of stages, all the while trying to coordinate his moves with the Chinese as much as possible. In Israel's estimation, Trump used his meeting with his Chinese colleague April 8 to request China's help in bringing about North Korea's disarmament from nuclear weapons. If you fail to do that, Trump told the Chinese leader, we will have to do it ourselves through other means.

It remains unclear as to how much the Chinese will cooperate and provide the goods, and it is even more unclear whether Trump will go all the way and use force, but initial indications regarding China's cooperation are hardly positive. On April 26, the Chinese responded negatively to reports that the United States is planning to deploy a battery of THAAD anti-ballistic missiles in South Korea. As stated in an earlier Al-Monitor article, when Trump first entered the White House, the Israeli assessment was that the North Korean issue would capture first place in the list of issues to which the new administration would be devoting its time and energy.

Politicians in Israel, especially on the right, are thrilled with this development. "As long as the North Korean issue bothers Trump and keeps him busy, the attention he devotes to the Middle East and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will be limited," one senior Israeli politician told Al-Monitor last week on condition of anonymity. "This serves the interests of Netanyahu and his right-wing government."

The North Korean issue was raised in meetings between Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, as well as in the three meetings held to date between Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman and his US counterpart, Secretary of Defense James Mattis. In an interview with Walla News on April 25, Liberman said, "The nuclear crisis with North Korea has direct implications for Israel. It is important to realize that the madman from North Korea is the closest ally that [Syrian President Bashar al-] Assad and the Iranians have. There is an axis of evil running from North Korea to Iran, Syria and Hezbollah. Furthermore, we can see the activities of this axis in Yemen and Iraq as well."