Will Turkey get its way in Raqqa?
Turkey is trying to balance its precarious relationships with the United States and Russia while still getting what it wants in Syria.
The US administration has tasked the Department of Defense with preparing, by Feb. 28, a comprehensive plan to defeat the Islamic State (IS) in Iraq and Syria. With only eight days left, it's clear we are entering the final phase of preparations for retaking Raqqa, the strategic heart of IS in Syria.
Turkey has been involved in many conversations with the United States this month. Following the Feb. 17 visit of CIA Director Mike Pompeo to Ankara, Gen. Joseph Dunford, the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, met at Incirlik Air Base with Turkey’s Chief of General Staff Hulusi Akar. On Feb. 18-19, Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yildirim discussed Raqqa and developments in northern Syria with US Vice President Mike Pence at the International Munich Security Conference.
Ankara is clearly delighted with US President Donald Trump’s rapid tackling of Syria and Washington's high-level cooperation. Obviously, Moscow is not all that pleased with the resurgence of diplomatic activity between Ankara and Washington regarding northern Syria. But we also have to note that Ankara is concurrently working to fortify field cooperation with Russia west of the Euphrates River. Russia, Turkey and Iran — which organized the peace talks last month and again last week in Astana, Kazakhstan — are forming a task force to monitor and implement the cease-fire in Syria. As a first step, Russia and Turkey could field a joint cease-fire monitoring force west of the Euphrates.
While Ankara is discussing with Washington a Raqqa operation to knock out IS, it is also trying to preserve its improved diplomatic ties with Moscow to maintain Turkey’s gains in Operation Euphrates Shield. Washington and Moscow are vying for leverage in northern Syria. Russia sees all of northern Syria as its area of influence, whereas the United States seems to concede the west while considering the eastern side to be its sphere of influence.
