There are strong signals coming from Amman that Jordan is calibrating its strategy on Syria in light of recent political and military developments. At the heart of this shift lies Jordan’s readiness to chart a more independent course in dealing with the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, using King Abdullah II’s good working relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin to secure a cease-fire in southern Syria, initiate reconciliation efforts between the regime and moderate rebel groups and tribal leaders in the south, and focus military efforts on fighting the Islamic State (IS) and Jabhat Fatah al-Sham (formerly Jabhat al-Nusra) in the Syrian Badia.

Before heading to Washington Feb. 2 on a working visit that culminated in a meeting with US President Donald Trump, Abdullah stopped in Moscow Jan. 25 to discuss the situation in Syria with Putin, Jordan’s role in fighting terrorism and the political process on Syria that was launched in the Kazakh capital of Astana on Jan. 15. The king also brought up the situation in southern Syria, whose stability is directly linked to Jordan’s national security.

On previous visits to Moscow following Russia’s military intervention in Syria in September 2015, Abdullah and Putin had reached what was described by local observers as a “gentleman’s agreement” to spare southern Syria military strikes and allow Jordan to use its influence with Free Syrian Army groups and local tribes to prevent the advance of jihadi fighters and facilitate the handover of border crossings to the regular Syrian army.

Following the fall of eastern Aleppo in December and the slow advance of the Iraqi army to liberate IS-held Mosul, Jordan wants to make sure that fleeing IS militants do not head to the Syrian Badia, inching closer to its borders. Two makeshift refugee camps on the Syrian side of the border with Jordan represent an ongoing threat to the kingdom. Jordan believes both camps have been infiltrated by IS fighters and may be used as a launching pad for strikes against it. Last October, IS claimed responsibility for a suicide car bomb attack that killed and injured a number of security personnel manning a humanitarian entry point to the Rukban camp.