Russia's return to the Middle East as a powerful actor has alienated some in the region and made others suspicious of its intentions. But all regional powers see merit in maintaining a careful balance in their ties with Moscow by compartmentalizing the relationship and separating the most controversial issues, such as Syria and the Iran nuclear program, into separate policy tracks. The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan has mastered this and reaped enormous benefits as a result. Despite significant disagreements on ways to settle the Syrian crisis and occasional criticism of each other, Russia and Jordan engage in multibillion dollar deals in the energy sector and conclude arms contracts, with Moscow not fearing that its RPGs sold to Amman may end up in the hands of rebels in Syria.

Since his coronation in 1999, King Abdullah has visited Russia 16 times, which signifies one of the most stable relationships that the Kremlin managed to establish in the Middle East. His most recent trip to Russia on Jan. 25 was an element of the trend and was quite different at the same time. The trip came just days after talks between the Syrian government and armed opposition groups had concluded in Astana, Kazakhstan. Abdullah expressed his full support for the Astana initiative and lauded Russia’s role in this process. In response, President Vladimir Putin thanked his counterpart for Jordan's constructive position on peace talks. Looking beyond these purely diplomatic courtesies, Jordan’s support for a Russian-initiated diplomatic initiative is something the Kremlin desperately looks to secure.

The Astana process in its present form is co-sponsored by Turkey, and a deal between Moscow and Ankara over Aleppo and the Turkish-Syrian border are the main founding blocks of this process; hence the cease-fire brokered in December is heavily focused on northern Syria. The truce has significantly decreased the level of violence in Aleppo but failed to produce similar results near Damascus and farther south in Daraa province. While it appears that the Syrian government was able to withdraw some of its forces from the south for the Aleppo operation thanks to a temporary de-escalation that was likely negotiated with Jordan by Russia, Moscow is looking for a more lasting solution there.

It is not clear whether Putin would like to invite Abdullah to become the fourth co-sponsor of the Astana process and the underlying cease-fire, but it would be the logical next step. Thus, the king’s visit could be interpreted in the context of the Kremlin’s efforts to shore up support for the process among powers that have significant military and logistical leverage in the conflict. Russia’s hopes aren’t entirely groundless given that the December cease-fire is so far the only international effort backed by powers that are directly involved in the conflict. Jordan’s value, however, is not based on its military support to the opposition, which is minimal, but in the fact that it harbors rebel groups and allows their supply routes to operate. Russia may be envisioning a wider role for Amman in the Astana process in exchange for its sealing the border with Syria and putting a cap on rebel ambitions to expand their area of influence in the south.