In addition to the routine chaos that infuses politics in Israel, the country now faces a perfect storm. Three powerful forces have simultaneously appeared, colliding and potentially causing a political earthquake of the type that shook Israeli politics in 2005, when Prime Minister Ariel Sharon split the Likud to create Kadima. The three are the advanced criminal investigations that threaten to bring down Benjamin Netanyahu's government, Donald Trump’s surprising victory in the 2016 US presidential election and the forthcoming report by the state comptroller on 2014's Operation Protective Edge in Gaza, which has already resulted in a barrage of recriminations, especially on the right.

The investigations into Netanyahu are now at an advanced stage. The chief of police, Commissioner Roni Alsheich, said on Jan. 22 that the police have “already reached their conclusions’’ and are now in the process of collecting evidence. According to him, the investigation will only take a few more weeks, but there are some who dispute that. The investigations have branched out in many different directions, leading the police to some surprising places. In the past, Netanyahu appeared to have at least nine lives, but now it seems the situation has spun out of his control. A full-fledged war to succeed him is being waged behind the scenes within the Likud and beyond.

Assuming that Netanyahu will eventually be indicted, the next question is what will he do in response? He is not obligated to resign by law unless he is convicted. At the same time, however, it is hard to imagine that Finance Minister Moshe Kahlon, Kulanu chairman and the current government's “Defender of the Rule of Law,” could withstand public pressure on him to resign from the coalition and bring down the government if Netanyahu refuses to step aside.

Will Netanyahu resign, or will he brace himself in position? Will he allow himself to become “incapacitated,” if only for a time, and appoint a temporary replacement, such as Likud's Yuval Steinitz, the current national infrastructure, energy and water resources minister, in the hope that a quick trial will end in acquittal and allow his return to office? Conventional wisdom holds that this scenario is unrealistic. Will Netanyahu therefore “grab hold of the altar by its horns,” move up elections and compete for the Likud leadership, much like Aryeh Deri did in 1999 despite his conviction for fraud? The chances of that happening are also slim.