On Nov. 29, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and Russian President Vladimir Putin had a phone conversation during which Rouhani noted that cooperation between Moscow and Tehran in fighting terrorism in Syria “had a historic effect” on regional stability. The conversation came a few days after the announcement that Tehran is considering the possibility of letting Moscow use its Hamadan Air Base, which could further boost cooperation between the two states.

Meanwhile, given the history, geopolitics and the current state of the relationship, Russia is particularly watchful of the forthcoming presidential election in Iran. The election may have significant implications for the Middle East and beyond. However, it wouldn’t be an overestimation to argue that for Moscow, the 2017 Iranian election means a lot more than previous elections, as the foreign policies of the two countries are more congruent than in the past.

Forecasting election results in Iran at this stage is a difficult task for local experts, let alone Russian ones. What makes any forecasts particularly challenging is that in the absence of a formal party structure in Iran, virtually any independent candidate may come on the scene. Moreover, the division between the two outstanding political streams in Iran — those that crowd around the Combatant Clergy Association (Jame-ye Rouhaniyat-e Mobarez) and the Reformists represented by a number of political groups, such as the Association of Combatant Clergy (Majma-e Rouhaniyun-e Mobarez) — is blurred. The process of regrouping in Iranian politics began with the appearance of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in 2005. Despite the fact that the former president was supported by the Combatant Clergy Association, he neither acknowledged the dominance of this group nor its leaders — high-ranking people in the Islamic Republic. Yet at the same time, his rebellious behavior was one of the main reasons of his success at the ballot box.

Even Rouhani, who is said to belong to the Combatant Clergy Association, competed for the presidency on the independent basis with the slogan “Prudence and Hope.”