Citing “security problems, economic challenges and other serious issues confronted by the region,” Bahrain’s Prime Minister Prince Khalifa bin Salman Al Khalifa recently announced that the transformation of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) to a union is an “inevitable goal” of this month’s Manama Dialogue (Dec. 9-11).
In 2013, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain called for a union at that year’s summit in Manama. Yet Oman’s Foreign Minister Yusuf bin Alawi bin Abdullah said that Muscat would not support such plans. Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) joined Oman in not backing Riyadh’s dream. With absolutely no illusions that Oman — historically the most independent member of the GCC — has changed its position, last month Ghanem al-Buainain, Bahrain’s minister of Parliament Affairs, stated that he sensed “great enthusiasm for the union from the other Gulf members.”
Yet is Buainain realistic in expecting Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE to support a union this month? Some skepticism is justified. Many non-Saudis in the GCC view Saudi Arabia as an important ally, yet they also see the oil-rich kingdom as an overbearing neighbor who does not always respect the smaller Arab Gulf states’ sovereignty. Due to a host of domestic issues in the GCC and regional developments, which the Arab Gulf families see through different lenses, Riyadh and Manama officials may see their plan for a union falling on deaf ears.
The argument that Saudi and Bahraini officials are making to their counterparts in the other Arab Gulf states is that the Middle East’s growing instability and exacerbated security crises have given all in the GCC reason to benefit from a more collective approach to fending off external threats. Yet to convince the Kuwaitis, Qataris and Emiratis that it is time for a union, these smaller monarchies’ rulers would need to calculate that compromising political liberalism, accepting less independence from Riyadh and giving up on plans to rival Saudi Arabia for regional influence are worth the benefits of tighter security cooperation.
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