Recep Tayyip Erdogan has held power in Turkey since 2002, when his Justice and Development Party (AKP) emerged victorious from parliamentary elections. Since then, first as prime minister and today as president, his popular support has increased with only a few bumps along the road, which he skillfully maneuvered. Now, in the aftermath of the failed coup of July 15, Erdogan seems more popular than ever. A new survey by the polling firm Genar suggests that more than 60% of the electorate supports Erdogan. Public support for his leadership against the coup attempt is at a phenomenal 88%.
The same Genar survey revealed another remarkable statistic: Erdogan’s potential votes in a presidential election increases to 70% of the electorate when the base of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) is included. There is currently great sympathy for Erdogan among MHP voters, who apparently may opt for him in the next presidential race. According to another recent poll, support for the AKP stands at 55% of voters, whereas the MHP has 12%. Support for the main opposition secular Republican People's Party (CHP) is holding steady around its usual 25%, whereas the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) has fallen to 7%.
Such broad support for Erdogan means that his support base is not limited to Islamists, as is sometimes assumed by the Western media. Various surveys, including a 2013 Pew Research Center poll, showed that Islamists — those who favor a state based on Sharia — constitute little more than 10% of the population in Turkey. It is safe to assume that most of these Islamists would today vote for Erdogan’s AKP, hoping that the party will do more in the long run for their cause. Then there is at least another 35% of the electorate, give or take, that also routinely votes for the AKP. They are typically Anatolian Sunni conservatives — who are religious but also pragmatic — who love Erdogan’s religious references along with the social services, highways and shopping malls provided courtesy of the AKP.
The base of the MHP, Turkey’s fourth largest party also consists of Anatolian Sunni conservatives. The only difference between the AKP and MHP bases is that the latter has been more insistent on ethnic Turkish nationalism. It has exhibited stronger enmity toward “Kurdish separatism,” real or perceived, and has always been hawkish against the armed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which Turkey and the United States have designated as a terrorist group.
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