Donald Trump’s historic victory this month shocked many across the world. Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) officials must deal with countless uncertainties surrounding Washington’s Middle East foreign policy in the post-Obama era. One area of grave concern for Arab Gulf monarchies is Syria, where since 2011 the Saudis and Qataris have invested heavily in Sunni Islamist forces fighting to overthrow Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
For Riyadh and Doha, the upcoming transition in Washington constitutes a major setback to their interests in this conflict. With Trump stepping into the Oval Office on Jan. 20, the prospects for Saudi Arabia and Qatar achieving their regime change objective in Damascus appear dimmer than ever — and those for Assad’s survival seem stronger than any point since the ongoing crisis erupted almost six years ago.
Although Washington has provided limited logistical and financial support to segments of Syria’s armed opposition while calling for Assad’s departure from power, a major grievance on Riyadh's and Doha’s part has been the Obama administration’s reluctance to take more decisive action against the Damascus regime. On Sept. 20, the emir of Qatar articulated this frustration with America’s outgoing president when addressing the UN General Assembly. “Red lines were set for the [Assad] regime … yet those who demarcated those lines have not felt provoked to raise a finger.” In the eyes of many in the GCC, Obama mismanaged the crisis and enabled Tehran to exploit the conflict for the purpose of expanding and consolidating Iranian/Shiite influence across the Levant.
As many in the GCC expected a Clinton victory, there was optimism that as commander in chief, the former secretary of state would embrace a more hands-on approach to the Syrian crisis, tip the balance of power against Assad in the rebels’ favor and ultimately push back Russia and Iran’s growing influence in the Arab world. Such optimism was justified. According to one of Clinton’s campaign advisers, she was determined to reset Washington’s Syria policy and focus on taking the “murderous” Syrian regime “out of there.” Short of supporting a deployment of US ground troops to Syria, Clinton advocated implementing a “no-fly zone” to build “leverage and momentum for a diplomatic solution that removes Assad and brings Syria’s communities together to fight [the Islamic State].”
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