Amid a rising death toll exceeding 10,000 and an outbreak of famine, the Yemeni civil war continues to rage. Almost four weeks after 3½ months of peace talks in Kuwait broke down last month, Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir declared, “What is certain, not questionable, certain, they [the Houthis] will not be allowed to take over Yemen. Period.” Jubeir is quite realistic in asserting that the Houthis will fail to usurp control of the entire country, assuming that this is even their goal. However, it is unclear whether Riyadh’s ongoing military campaign in Yemen can prevent the formation of a de facto Zaydi Houthi proto-state in northern Yemen.

Ansar Allah (the dominant Houthi militia) maintains its strong grip on Sanaa and other parts of Yemen despite 18 months of Riyadh’s bombardments and blockades. By acquiring foreign flows of cash, forming alliances with other heavily armed actors in Yemen, devising collection services for war efforts, developing a black market for basic commodities and cooperating with a cartel of oil importers allied with Ansar Allah, Yemen’s Houthi rebels have consolidated gains on the ground since seizing the capital two years ago.

In retaliation for more aggressive Saudi bombing since last month’s peace talks fell apart, the Houthis and their allies have more forcefully taken their fight to their enemy’s ‘soft underbelly’ by stepping up cross-border attacks and firing more missiles and rockets at southern Saudi Arabia, which Yemeni media reported led to a damaged Aramco facility.

Ultimately, the issue of Ansar Allah’s arsenal of heavy weapons, which threaten the security of several Saudi cities, and the question of Houthi disarmament contributed to the breakdown of the latest round of peace talks.