The Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) has often stirred controversy over the ways it calculates economic data, and it has even faced accusations of manipulating figures. But the institute’s latest survey shows that even it can no longer mask how poverty has increased and the income gap has widened in Turkey. The results of the TUIK’s 2015 Income and Living Conditions Survey, released Sept. 21, are an omen that serious social explosions could be in store for Turkey as it grapples with unrest and instability both at home and in the region.

Separately, TUIK’s latest unemployment data shows that the jobless rate is back in the double digits, standing at 10.2% as of June. Most strikingly, unemployment among young people, ages 15-24, has increased by 2.8 percentage points in a month.

On Sept. 9, TUIK announced that gross domestic product in the second quarter increased 3.1% from the same period last year, down from 4.8% in the first quarter. The economic growth, however, was generated largely from public spending, which has expanded 50%, rather than investment, output, exports or employment.

It was the third consecutive quarter in which economic growth was driven by a big increase in public spending, in addition to household consumption expenditures, which, however, are on the decline. And the increase in public spending stems from expenditures in the security and military realm, including the crackdown on Kurdish militants in the southeast, rather than any moves to improve the people’s living conditions, make investments and create jobs. The state, in a sense, is funneling its resources into the war economy it is implementing.