Jordanians go to the polls today to elect their lower house of parliament. Middle East security observers will likely pay little attention. Jordan is not the most powerful state in the region, and its parliament, a traditionally weak institution, was further constrained by constitutional reforms earlier this year that increased the king's powers over the security services. Jordan is, however, a crucial Western ally and has spared many a headache through its ability to sidestep the unrest raging around it. 

While Jordan’s security services deserve most of the credit for the relative calm in Jordan, they naturally have little sway over the economic and sociopolitical issues that underwrite the long-term stability of the Hashemite kingdom. Indeed, from Tunisia and Egypt to Syria and Yemen, the greatest recent challenges to Sunni Arab leaders have emerged from domestic grievances. The Arab monarchies have largely avoided this turmoil, but while the Gulf kingdoms enjoy a huge cushion of oil wealth, resource-poor countries like Jordan have greater incentive to develop the structural foundations of long-term stability and prosperity. 

Jordan’s approximately 30% youth unemployment rate and public debt totaling more than 90% of gross domestic product bode ill for internal stability. In June, for example, three security personnel were wounded in clashes with protesters demonstrating against unemployment in Dhiban, also the site of Arab Spring protests in 2011. These economic challenges are compounded by the presence of Syrian refugees, estimated by the government to stand at 1.4 million. Many of them live outside camps administered by the United Nations.

King Abdullah’s appointment in May of a new prime minister, Hani-al-Mulqi, set in motion the first parliamentary elections since 2013. The interim leader is the former head of the Aqaba Special Economic Zone Authority, likely signaling the palace’s preference for a technocratic government that can manage the economy. Abdullah emphasized as much in his appointment announcement, and Mulqi, in turn, quickly cut energy subsidies and concluded a long-anticipated agreement with the International Monetary Fund.