The Russian deployment of combat aircraft into Iran to bomb Sunni targets in Syria is the latest step in what Saudi Arabia perceives as a steadily deteriorating regional security environment. The Saudis have little hope that either of the two main US presidential candidates, Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton, will turn things around.
Riyadh sees the ever closer relations between Iran, Russia, Syria, Hezbollah and Shiite Iraqis as a fundamental shift in the strategic environment in the Middle East. One Saudi commentator with close connections to the royal family labeled the Russian deployment a strategic "shock" that demonstrates how badly the United States underestimated Iranian and Russian aggressive intentions.
The Saudis always feared the Iran nuclear deal would end Tehran's pariah status and give it more strategic options. Saudi efforts to buy off Moscow have been a failure. With international sanctions lifted for the most part, Iran is a strategic partner more attractive than the kingdom. The deployment of Russian bombers is the first foreign military presence in Iran since the fall of the Shah. It's a nightmare for the royals.
Turkey's rapprochement with Russia adds to Saudi concerns. Ankara has been a strong opponent of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Riyadh's bete noire. For Riyadh, it is more important to get rid of the Assad regime than to combat the Islamic State. The Saudis have been frustrated for years by US President Barack Obama's unwillingness to put more effort into eliminating Assad. Now the Syrian president seems more secure than ever. Saudis from the royals to the general population believe America and the world have betrayed the Sunni majority in Syria, tacitly tolerating genocide by a Shiite-Alawite-Russian axis.
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