Russian President Vladimir Putin’s Aug. 9 meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan didn’t solve all the problems in the complex Russian-Turkish relationship, but it seems likely to impart further momentum to the rapprochement following Erdogan’s apology for Ankara’s downing of a Russian Su-24 in November 2015. Still, the limits to the Russia-Turkey relationship may already be apparent to some in Moscow.
On the positive side, perhaps most significant is the fact that Putin did not limit the event to a one-on-one meeting with Erdogan. Indeed, had the Kremlin sought to draw out Erdogan’s penitence, Russian officials could have done so; Putin could even have pressed Erdogan to repeat his somewhat weak written apology live on camera on Russian territory. Instead, Russia’s president was magnanimous in victory; he not only met his Turkish counterpart, but assembled several key subordinates for a larger and more practically oriented conversation about restarting specific bilateral projects. Russia’s high-level delegation included Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Putin’s foreign policy assistant Yury Ushakov, General Staff Chief Valery Gerasimov, Gazprom Chairman Alexey Miller, and Russia’s energy, economic and transport ministers. Putin’s special representative on Syria also took part, as did Russia’s ambassador to Turkey.
Russia’s president would not bring together a group like this if he didn’t want to turn the Russian-Turkish relationship around. Putin also addressed Russian and Turkish business leaders, whom he told, “We should not simply return to the previous level but exceed it and go further.” While it will not be easy to surpass souvenir plates displaying the two presidents shaking hands, Moscow’s effort in presenting these during the meetings likewise demonstrates more than casual interest in the relationship.
Putin’s remarks at a joint press conference following the meetings suggest one of Moscow’s principal motives in accepting Erdogan’s apology so readily: The Russian president spoke at some length about restoring Russian-Turkish trade, resuming energy projects, lifting restrictions on tourism and reopening Russia’s construction sector to Turkish firms and workers. In the transcript, this continues for six paragraphs, compared with only four sentences about “pressing international issues,” including Syria. On the latter topics, the Kremlin leader seemed decidedly less optimistic.
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