Turkey appears more like a concerned onlooker than an active participant in Iraq and Syria, as major US and Russian-supported offensives against the Islamic State (IS) continue to gather momentum, and key players jockey to gain spheres of influence in and around Fallujah, Mosul, Manbij and Raqqa once these cities are liberated from IS.

Turkey's only participation in these offensives has been to allow US-led anti-IS coalition jets to take off from Incirlik Air Base, and to engage in cross-border shelling of IS positions in northern Syria, mostly in response to IS shells lobbed into Turkey.

Meanwhile, predominantly Arab and Turkmen groups supported by Ankara, and operating under the broad umbrella of the Free Syrian Army (FSA), continue to perform poorly against IS. This contrasts sharply with the gains of the US-supported Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the bulk of which are made up of fighters from the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG).

Ankara considers this group to be a terrorist organization because of its links to the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party. Turkey is concerned that once the SDF ousts IS from the "Manbij pocket," one of the regions where the fighting is currently concentrated, this will enable the Kurds to gain the 98-kilometer (60-mile) stretch of land between Jarablus and Azez and establish an autonomous region for themselves along the Turkish border.