Former Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon hasn’t officially left the Likud, but it is only a procedural matter. Soon he will announce the establishment of a new right-wing party, at the head of which he would run for the job of prime minister in the next election. Ya'alon’s party will appeal to the so-called sane, right-wing and liberal electorate, but also to the heart of the political center that is now controlled by Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid.

Lapid has been soaring in the polls over the past few months, predicting that he would win 20 or more seats in the Knesset. Thus, he started establishing himself as an alternative to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. But then came Ya'alon’s dismissal from the Ministry of Defense and the game opened up again.

Talks among figures close to Ya'alon and Lapid that took place in recent days were meant to feel out options for cooperation, but they reached a dead end: Neither of them is willing to be the other’s No. 2. This means that if neither one concedes, in the next election they will compete for the same set of votes on the center-right — so neither one will succeed in creating a large party — and once again, the votes that are supposed to create a political revolution will be divided.

It’s still early to know how things will pan out, since the election isn’t yet on the horizon and the Netanyahu government seems stable, but these very days the next electoral campaign is already shaping up.