Passover this year, in April, passed almost without incident for the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Southern Command and residents of southern Israel. Concerns about mutual military escalations and miscalculations between Israel and Hamas came to naught.

Israel and Hamas-ruled Gaza confronted each other in 2008 (Operation Cast Lead), 2012 (Operation Pillar of Defense) and 2014 (Operation Protective Edge). The Southern Command’s working assumption is that there will be another round in the coming years. The IDF and Shin Bet are trying to understand which way the wind is blowing in Gaza and map in advance Hamas' plans and preparations for the next round. The IDF is also determined to conclude that round faster than previous confrontations and score a decisive victory. In the 2014 war, the IDF trudged around for 51 long days until a cease-fire took effect.

The battlefield is more complicated than ever. Hamas is divided, between its military and political branches, which are bickering with increasing intensity. The diplomatic branch is trying, unsuccessfully, to work its way into Egypt’s good graces, but the Egyptians are demanding that Hamas turn over Islamic State (IS) collaborators, while the military brass refuses.

Mohammed al-Deif, commander of the military wing, knows that IS' Sinai District (formerly Ansar Bait al-Maqdis) is the last ammunitions pipeline Hamas has these days. The besieged heads of Hamas’ military wing have been appealing to Iran for help. The three of them — Deif, his deputy, Marwan Issa, and strongman Yahya Sanwar — are trying to drag the diplomatic branch to “go the extra mile” in Tehran's direction, but Khaled Meshaal, Hamas' political bureau chief, has hesitated. Given the heavy pressure he comes under from Sunni countries, Meshaal can’t afford to be seen joining up with the Shiites in Tehran.