The collision between Turkey and the European Union (EU) was not unexpected, arriving as it did before mid-May. Now, attention has turned to the next looming crisis, between Ankara and Berlin.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel is not only the head of a leading European country who has stood firm against mounting domestic and foreign criticism of the deal she masterminded with Turkey to curb the flow of refugees into the Schengen zone. Merkel is also the de facto leader of the European Union. The deterioration of the relationship between Turkey and Germany will have a very strong imprint on the already troubled relations between Ankara and Brussels.

German weekly Der Spiegel reported May 13, “The tone between Ankara and Berlin is likely to worsen even further on June 2, when the German parliament intends to pass a resolution commemorating the 1915 genocide carried out by Turkey on the Armenians. Out of consideration for the sensitive negotiations with the government in Ankara, coalition parliamentarians opted not to pursue such a resolution last year. But now, with Erdogan not showing much interest in de-escalation, Merkel's conservatives along with the SPD [Social Democratic Party of Germany] want to pass the bill in three weeks' time. The draft resolution speaks clearly of 'genocide' and of ‘planned expulsion and destruction.’”

The Turkish-German relationship had already soured this month when it became clear that visa-free travel for Turkish citizens in the Schengen zone would not be implemented by June as stipulated by the Turkey-EU refugee deal, to which Merkel had seemingly tied her political survival. European Parliament President Martin Schulz outspokenly declared that unless Turkey met the 72 criteria for the fulfillment of visa-free travel, the EU body would not put the matter on its agenda. Turkey has met 65 of the 72 criteria, but the remaining seven are thorny for Ankara, particularly modification of the Anti-Terror Law, which is being abused to stifle any sort of dissent.