The May 23 terror attacks that killed nearly 150 civilians and injured 200 in the Syrian towns of Jableh and Tartus are creating serious consequences that affect the situation in Syria and the surrounding area.
First, these attacks are the first security breach of the Syrian region, which has so far been considered a government stronghold. Of course, according to Russian analysts, if even major European states are not able to protect themselves from such acts of terror, it doesn’t mean the jihadis’ breakthrough to Latakia indicates a shift in the balance of power in Syria in their favor. Nonetheless, Russian experts expect the Syrian government to take stringent measures to strengthen security in this region that is far from the frontlines.
Second, the majority of the victims, according to Al-Monitor’s sources, were Alawites. There are some concerns that these attacks may intensify the sectarian component of the Syrian conflict and unfold a spiral of fierce revenge. An anonymous Syrian source told Al-Monitor the leadership in Damascus is aware of the danger of such a scenario and will try to avoid it. However, it is clear that the fight against terrorism in Syria will become even more uncompromising.
Third, the threat to the already-fragile cessation of hostilities has increased dramatically, and without the cease-fire, there can be no progress on the political front. As stated by the Russian Foreign Ministry, “We see this as a brazen challenge not only to the government and the citizens of Syria, but also to the authority of the international community.” Russia and the United States, as co-chairs of the International Syria Support Group, will have to make proactive joint efforts to prevent a total collapse of the cease-fire and disruption of the political process as a result of these new terrorist attacks.
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