Another violent clash between Israel and Gaza was averted at the last minute on May 4. A statement issued by senior Hamas official Moussa Abu Marzouk said understandings were reached between the sides through Egyptian mediation about a cease-fire on the Israel-Gaza border. According to the statement, Hamas pledged to prevent all rocket launches at Israel by various Palestinian factions in the Gaza Strip, whereas Israel promised to stop its airstrikes on the Strip and withdraw the military forces that had begun operating inside Gaza. As of the morning of May 5, Israel had not responded to Abu Marzouk’s statement.

All of Israel’s past military operations in Gaza started out this way: a limited exchange of blows, a smattering of mortar shells from Gaza and Israeli air strikes on Gaza — all snowballing into another round of vicious violence with thousands of dead and wounded.

The latest escalation, including several mortars fired from Gaza to Israel over the past few weeks, was foreseeable. Israeli defense officials have been telling me for weeks that Hamas was unlikely to put up with new Israeli limitations on the transfer of goods and raw materials through the Kerem Shalom crossing into Gaza. As it is, the situation in Gaza is desperate and even the slightest change can result in total collapse.

Last week Al-Monitor reported this Israeli thinking, including concerns about another military clash with Hamas. It all started when Transportation Minister Yisrael Katz ordered restrictions on the number of trucks allowed through the Kerem Shalom crossing into Gaza, under pressure from residents of the Gaza border communities troubled by the heavy truck traffic on the narrow, potholed 232 route leading to the sole access point for food and goods into the Strip.